Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
