Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
